Drive Via de la Valle toward the coast this week and count the For Sale signs that have been in the same yards since summer. In Del Mar and the Rancho Santa Fe Covenant, plenty of the homes that listed above $5 million in June are still listed in November. Some have cut the price once. A few have cut it twice.
The second cut is the one I care about.
Here's what I'm seeing in the San Diego MLS this fall. Top-end inventory is up from where it was a year ago, and days on market have stretched. It's not a crash, and nobody is giving away an ocean view. But the pace has changed, and sellers who priced off spring comps are figuring that out in real time.
The first reduction is mostly ego management. A seller lists at $7.5 million because a neighbor got that in April, sits for 60 days, then trims to $7.2 million and feels generous. The second reduction usually lands around Thanksgiving. By then the seller has talked to their accountant about carrying costs and can picture the house still sitting on Zillow in March. That's when you can actually negotiate.
I've run real estate teams for 20 years, and I've heard a lot of agents tell buyers to wait for spring because "more inventory comes on." I think that's backwards for luxury. Spring does bring more listings. It also brings more buyers, fresh pricing, and sellers who haven't been humbled yet. November and December bring tired sellers and a much thinner crowd at showings. If you're serious about buying this quarter, that's the trade you want.
Investors and developers should read this a little differently. I'd be looking at dated houses on big lots in Rancho Santa Fe and the Olivenhain side of Encinitas. An owner holding a 1980s house on two acres that buyers keep calling a tear-down is paying to carry a property most people don't want as-is. Those conversations get easier every week the listing sits.
Two things I'd do right now:
- Pull the full price history, not just today's number. Two cuts in four months tells you more than the flyer does. - Ask the listing agent when the seller needs to be out, then write before the holidays. A seller staring at an empty January calendar thinks very differently.
Prices aren't falling off a cliff. The people setting them are just finally reading the room. A little late, but I'll take it.
I post the homes I'm walking each week on my Instagram. Follow along, and send me the listing you've been watching that won't sell. I probably have an opinion.