A three-bedroom off Balboa Avenue in Clairemont sat for about six weeks in September before the seller finally cut the price. It went pending nine days later. That's the whole story of this quarter in one house.
Here's what I'm seeing on the MLS right now. Homes that hit the market in July and August, priced for a spring they missed, are still sitting, and the sellers are starting to move. Price reductions across the county are up compared to this time last year. Not dramatically. Enough that you notice when you're pulling listings every morning.
Median prices haven't dropped much. Roughly flat from summer, maybe a little softer on the condo side. But the number on the listing and the number you actually pay have been drifting apart. I'm seeing more closings under asking than I did in the spring, plus seller credits toward closing costs that would've been laughed off a year ago.
For a first-time buyer, that credit is the part that matters. If you're stretched for the down payment, a seller paying $10,000 toward your closing costs is the same as a $10,000 price cut in terms of cash out of your pocket, and sometimes better. Ask for it. The worst answer is no.
Now the part where I disagree with a lot of people. Every fall I hear buyers say they'll wait until spring, when there's more to choose from. That's true. There will be more inventory in March. There will also be three other offers on anything decent, and every one of those buyers will have spent the winter watching rates and reading the same headlines you did. Spring is when the crowd shows up. October through December is when the sellers still on the market are the ones who need to sell, and the buyers who show up are the ones who get taken seriously.
Inventory does thin out around Thanksgiving. Some listings get pulled and come back in January with fresh photos and a fresh price. I'd rather you be the only offer on a good house in early December than one of four in April.
What I'd do this quarter if I were you: get fully underwritten now, not just pre-qualified. Then pull everything in your range that's been sitting more than 30 days. Start with the Clairemont and Mira Mesa listings that have already taken one reduction. Those sellers admitted the price was wrong once. They'll admit it twice.