Every year around mid-October, my phone gets a little quieter. I get fewer showing requests and fewer questions about open houses. More people tell me they'll "start looking after the holidays." That pause is the most useful thing happening in the market right now, and most first time buyers miss it.
Here's what changes this quarter. The buyers who shopped all summer have either bought or given up. The sellers who are still listed in October need to move. Maybe it's a job relocation, a baby on the way, or a house they already closed on across town. Those are real deadlines, and they don't care that it's almost Thanksgiving.
So fewer people are competing for the same homes, and the sellers would rather talk now than wait until spring. What I've seen the last few falls is pretty simple. A listing that gets three offers in April might get one in November. One offer is a conversation. Three offers is an auction.
I'll be honest, I don't think "wait for spring" is good advice for most first time buyers. Spring brings more listings, sure. It also brings everybody else who said they'd wait. You'd be shopping with more choices and a lot less leverage.
If you're buying this quarter, there are things worth asking for that you'd probably skip in spring. Help with closing costs is one. A longer inspection window is another, and so is a closing date in early January so you aren't packing boxes between holiday dinners. On a $550,000 home, even $8,000 toward closing costs changes how your first year feels.
Sellers, this part is for you. The people touring homes in October and November are serious. Nobody spends the week before Thanksgiving looking at houses for fun. Make your place easy to see. Say yes to the Tuesday evening showing. Turn the lights on and keep it warm, since it's dark before dinner now. That's small stuff, but with fewer buyers out there, every showing counts for more.
I don't have some secret system for this. I just pay attention to who's still out there in the fall, and right now it's mostly people who mean it.
If you're thinking about a move before the end of the year, send me a message before you decide to wait. We can look at what's actually on the market in your price range and go from there. Talk soon.