Three weeks ago I pulled comps along Robinson Avenue in Hillcrest and noticed something I hadn't seen in a while. Five active listings within a six-block stretch, all priced between $750K and $1.1M. That's a lot for that corridor. A year ago, you'd be lucky to find two.
Inventory is creeping up. Not flooding. Creeping. And that distinction matters.
What I'm seeing across Hillcrest, North Park, University Heights, and Mission Hills is a slow loosening. Sellers who held through the last eighteen months are starting to list. Some are testing the market. Some are motivated. And buyers, especially ones who've been sitting on pre-approvals since last fall, are finally seeing more than one or two options at a time.
Here's where I'll give you my honest take. I don't think this is a correction. I think it's a return to something closer to normal market behavior. Prices haven't dropped meaningfully. According to what I pulled from the MLS last month, median sale prices in Hillcrest are still up roughly 4% year over year. But the days-on-market number is stretching. Properties that would have gone in a weekend twelve months ago are sitting for two, sometimes three weeks.
For buyers, that's an opening. You have a little more room to breathe, to negotiate inspection items, to not write an offer at 3AM out of panic. For sellers, it means pricing strategy actually matters again. Overpricing by $50K and waiting for someone desperate isn't working the way it did in 2022.
Investors should pay attention too. The rent-to-price ratio in these neighborhoods still holds up well compared to coastal markets. But the window where you could grab a duplex or small multi-family with zero competition is closing as more buyers re-enter.
I've spent 25 years building businesses and reading markets, and one thing stays consistent. The people who do well aren't the ones who time things perfectly. They're the ones who recognize a shift while it's still quiet.
Robinson Avenue is telling me something right now. If you're watching these neighborhoods, it might be worth a conversation before the rest of the market catches up.