Drive down Holland Road in Menifee on a Saturday and count the flags. Builder flags, feather banners, "rates from" signs staked into the dirt. That's this fall's market in one picture.
Here's what I'm seeing. Compared to this time last year, there are more resale homes for sale across southwest Riverside County, and they're sitting longer before they go into escrow. Nothing dramatic. But for most homes under $700,000, you can't count on listing on a Thursday and reviewing ten offers by Monday anymore.
The bigger change is who you're competing against. New construction communities around Menifee and French Valley are offering rate buydowns and closing cost credits that a regular homeowner can't match on paper. A buyer walks a model home, hears about a rate a full point under what their own lender quoted, and suddenly the resale down the street with the bigger backyard looks expensive.
Sellers, this is where I push back a little. A lot of people react by cutting the price. I think that's the wrong lever most of the time. A price cut gets spread across 30 years of payments and barely moves the monthly number. A seller credit toward a rate buydown actually does. On a $600,000 home, the right credit can lower a buyer's payment more than a $20,000 price reduction would. Run both numbers before you touch the list price.
Buyers, you have more room than you did a year ago. Ask for credits. Ask for repairs. The list price isn't the end of the conversation right now. And read the builder's offer closely. Those incentives usually come tied to the builder's own lender, and HOA dues plus Mello-Roos in the newer tracts can add a few hundred dollars a month that the flyer doesn't mention.
Investors, softer resale pricing in Menifee and Lake Elsinore makes the rent math a little less painful than it's been. Not great. Better.
If I were buying this quarter, I'd tour both. I'd walk the model, get the builder's numbers in writing, then bring them to a resale seller and see who wants the deal more. People forget they can do that. You're allowed to make them compete for you.