The Kilby rental building on Camino de la Reina just listed a handful of resale units in the last few weeks. That's not earth-shattering on its own, but it's part of a pattern I've been watching across Mission Valley since the start of Q2.
Inventory is rising. According to what I've pulled from the MLS over the past 30 days, active listings in Mission Valley are up roughly 18% compared to this time last year. That's not a flood. But it's enough to change the feel of the market. Buyers have a bit more room to breathe. Open houses aren't the rugby scrums they were in 2022.
For sellers, this matters. Pricing high and waiting doesn't work the way it did even six months ago. If your condo sits for three weeks without an offer, the market is telling you something. I'd rather see a seller come in sharp on price from day one than chase the market down over 60 days. That second scenario costs you more every time.
Buyers, you've got leverage you haven't had in a while. Use it. I'm seeing sellers agree to closing cost credits, minor repairs, things that were a flat "no" 18 months ago. Rates are still in the high sixes (roughly 6.7% to 6.9% on a 30-year fixed last I checked), and yes that's not cheap. But if you're buying in Mission Valley near the trolley corridor or close to the river redevelopment, you're buying into long-term upside. I genuinely believe that.
Investors, pay attention to the newer builds around Friars Road. Cap rates are still tight, but rents in that pocket have stayed strong because of the location. If you can find a unit that pencils even close to breakeven with today's rates, refinancing into a better rate down the line is where the real return lives. My years as a financial planner taught me to look past the monthly payment and think about the full cost of capital over a hold period. Most people skip that step.
One opinion I'll give you for free: I think too many people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop to five percent. That's not happening this year. Probably not next year either.
So what's your plan while you wait?