Pull up the active listings in Granite Hills right now and count how many say "price reduced." That number tells you more about East County this fall than any national headline will.
Here's what I'm watching. Homes in El Cajon and La Mesa are still selling. They're just sitting longer first, and plenty of the sellers who listed in late summer have already dropped their price once. In the MLS over the last couple of months, homes in these neighborhoods have been taking noticeably longer to go under contract than they did in the spring. That's not a crash. Sellers are adjusting their expectations, and some are doing it one price cut at a time.
The sellers taking the hit are the ones who priced off a neighbor's spring sale. Back in April, a well-kept three-bedroom off Greenfield Drive could count on competition to push the price up. Those comps are six months old now, and buyers know it. There are fewer buyers out there this fall, and they're pickier.
**If you're selling this quarter**
Price to what's pending, not to what closed in May. Pending sales show you where buyers are today. Closed sales show you where they were. I'd rather list a home at the right number on day one than follow the market down with two reductions. The second cut is the one that makes buyers wonder what's wrong with the house.
Get the house ready before it goes live, too. The homes still moving quickly on the east side of La Mesa look clean and finished from the first showing.
**If you're buying this quarter**
If I were buying, this is the window I'd want. You have less competition and sellers who have already come down to earth, so there's room to ask for things that weren't on the table in the spring, like a credit toward a rate buydown or a seller who covers the repairs from your inspection.
A lot of buyers are holding off until January because they expect prices to fall further. I think that's the wrong bet. Competition comes back in the spring, and then you're up against three other offers instead of a seller who's been watching their listing sit for six weeks.
So which side are you on? If you're thinking about moving before the end of the year, I'll pull the pending sales on your street and we can go through the real numbers together.