A two-bedroom condo on Fern Street in South Park just closed for $30K under asking last week. Six months ago, that wouldn't have happened.
I've been watching San Diego's market shift since the start of 2025, and this spring feels different from the last couple of years. According to MLS data from March, active listings in the county are up roughly 25% compared to the same time last year. That's a real number. For first-time buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines feeling priced out, this matters.
More inventory means more choices. It also means sellers are starting to negotiate again. Price reductions are popping up in neighborhoods that were untouchable 18 months ago. Normal Heights, North Park, parts of Chula Vista. I've seen buyers get closing cost credits, repair concessions, even rate buydowns funded by the seller. That was a fantasy in 2022.
Here's where I'll push back on something you'll hear from a lot of people: "Wait for rates to drop." I think that's a mistake for most first-time buyers right now. When rates drop significantly, demand spikes. More buyers flood in, prices get bid up, and the leverage you have today disappears. The math pencils out better buying now with a rate in the mid-6s and refinancing later than it does competing in a frenzy at a lower rate with a higher purchase price.
That said, San Diego is still expensive. Median home price is sitting around $950K per the latest data from the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors. For condos and townhomes, though, you're looking at a much more approachable entry point. The $500K to $650K range has real options right now, especially in East County and parts of the South Bay.
If you're a first-time buyer, here's what I'd focus on this quarter:
- Get pre-approved before you start touring. Sellers take you more seriously, and you'll know your actual budget. - Look at homes that have been sitting 20+ days. That's where your negotiating power lives. - Don't sleep on condos with HOAs. Run the numbers yourself instead of dismissing them.
The window where you have both selection and leverage doesn't stay open forever. If you've been thinking about it, I'd grab coffee and talk through what a realistic plan looks like for you.
What neighborhood are you watching?