Pending Home Sales Fall Near a 12-Year Low. Why a Quiet Market Rewards Prepared Buyers and Realistic Sellers in San Diego and Chicago

Fewer homes are going under contract than at almost any point in more than a decade. According to Redfin, U.S. pending home sales have dropped to their lowest level since 2014, apart from the brief pandemic freeze in 2020. Mortgage rates above 7% are keeping many would-be buyers out of the market. Redfin also reports that pending sales fell from a year earlier in every major U.S. metro, with Seattle and Southern California posting the steepest declines. National home prices rose just 1.3% year over year in September.

Pending sales count signed contracts, so they show where the market is heading before closings do. A drop this broad tells us demand has thinned out, and it is happening across the country, not in a few overheated cities.

What it means in San Diego

Southern California leading the decline matters to our clients here. Fewer contracts usually means homes sit longer and buyers have more room to negotiate. Sellers should not expect the multiple-offer weekends of a few years ago. The homes that are selling are priced to current conditions, show well, and reach the right buyers from day one.

The opportunity for buyers is real, but it is not a free-for-all. San Diego inventory is still limited by historical standards, and well-located homes in our strongest neighborhoods continue to draw attention. A slower market gives you time to inspect carefully, ask for concessions where they make sense, and avoid paying a premium just to win.

What it means in Chicago

Chicagoland has tended to hold steadier than many coastal markets, but no major metro escaped this slowdown in Redfin's data. Buyers in the city and the suburbs may find sellers more open to conversations about price, timing, and repairs than they were in the spring. Sellers who price on last year's comps risk sitting while the market moves past them.

Our perspective

A market with few transactions is not a market without opportunity. It favors people who prepare. For buyers, that means being fully underwritten, knowing your payment at today's rates, and having a plan to refinance if rates ease. For sellers, it means pricing from current contract activity instead of peak-era memories and presenting the home so it stands out to the smaller pool of active buyers.

With prices up only slightly nationally and contracts this scarce, the gap between well-advised and poorly advised moves is wider than usual. If you are weighing a purchase or sale in San Diego or Chicago, our team can show you what is actually going under contract in your neighborhood and help you plan around it.