Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 63%, the Widest Gap Since the Post-2008 Crash. How Buyers in San Diego and Chicago Can Use the Leverage

Buyers have more negotiating power than at any point since the housing crash. According to Redfin, the U.S. housing market had 63% more sellers than buyers in September. That is the widest gap since the market fell apart after the 2008 financial crisis. The number of active buyers dropped to its lowest level in Redfin's records, which go back to 2013, while the number of sellers climbed to a record high.

That is a national figure, and real estate is local. San Diego's coastal neighborhoods and Chicago's North Shore usually behave differently from the national average, and a single block can tell a different story than the metro it sits in. The direction still matters, though. When more owners are competing for fewer serious buyers, the terms of a deal change.

What this means for buyers

This is a market for asking, not just offering. Inspection contingencies, seller-paid closing costs, rate buydowns, and flexible closing dates were hard to win a few years ago. Many sellers will now consider them. Homes that have sat for a few weeks are often the best place to start, because those sellers have already seen how the market responded to their price.

Leverage only helps a buyer who is ready to act on it. A full underwriting approval, a clear budget that accounts for today's rates, and a short list of must-haves let you move quickly when the right home appears. Sellers favor the offer most likely to close, even in a buyer's market.

What this means for sellers

A record number of competing listings means the first two weeks on market carry more weight than ever. Buyers compare every home against everything else available, so pricing from current, truly comparable sales (not last spring's peak) is the strongest tool a seller has. Presentation counts too. Professional photography, smart staging, and pre-listing repairs help a home stand out when buyers have plenty of alternatives.

Sellers who don't need to move this fall can also weigh timing. Some will do better waiting for spring. Others, especially those buying their next home, can use this same softness on the purchase side, which often makes up for a more modest sale price.

Our take

A buyer's market isn't a broken market. It rewards preparation on both sides of the table. Our team in San Diego and Chicago is tracking how this national shift is showing up neighborhood by neighborhood, and we're glad to walk you through what the numbers look like for your street.